From: Dave Kaun N9KMY <dhkaun@...>
Date: March 23, 2023 at 10:03:12 PM EDT
To: SMARC@groups.io
Subject: [SMARC] [EmComm] we were very lucky this time
Reply-To: SMARC@groups.io



Fyi

A CME has several different components.

A CME is always accompanied with a flare and it magnetc disconnect component. the magnetic disconnect has on of the lines of magnetic flew pointing in the space and electrons flow on it just like a longwire antenna,

The immediate effect here 8.3 minutes after the CME takes place the EMF wave hits us. This is EMF front, with X-rays and UV.

This wave starts overloading the E-F layers as each layer is saturated, more UV and Xrays reach the D layer, And as the D-Layer become more Saturated the MFU increases. During a Carrington blackout, were might loose 2 meters. During a Miyake type event (usually in the range of 10 times bigger than a Carrington type event), the blackout is estimated to drive the MUF to the 1.0GHz range or higher. The effect could bend and delay all types GPS signals as those frequency 

That's the RF stuff. 

The next impactors would be the accelerated normal background of solar particles being pushed like fallen snow ahead of the CME's particles these particles. These particles can very from 350 k/sec to 459 k/sec. These particles would be push to a speed of around 600 k/sec pushed would effect satellites and other objects in orbit. 

The last to hit us is the actual CMS particles impact us. Those particles could be traveling in the range of speed 7-900 k/sec or higher. These particles (protons and electrons) have mass some and have to potential to push as well as charge/discharge inside the satellites. additions the density (count of particles per cubic meter increases. These particles would engage the earth magnetic field and put on one of a kind of the light show. That would close RF paths over the poles on LW and HF and have been known to disrupt GPS signal as they timing signals are distorted by heavy ionized layers.

The last Miyake event was in 774-774 AD. the source of these cosmic ray burst are unknown. Some researchers have ruled out Solar flares as a source. Other scientists have said their conclusion was drawn from insufficient evidence and a lack of observations. One events indirect observation is not a statistically important is often heard.

The opinions here are my latest reading and listening to and reading discussions with solar and planetary scientists that often disagree with each other, very vocally at times.

The timing of the arrival of a CME event would start 8.3 minutes after it happened. Depending of the placement of the solar observatory, the warning from it wouldn't matter. The event would be here by the time SDO or any other orbital observatory could observe and send a warning ( it is all simple math - Trig [Light minutes from sun to the SDO + Light minutes from SDO to Earth > 8.3 minutes]). 

Bob Officer, N6TCE

------ Original Message ------

From "Barry Porter, KB1PA via groups.io" <BarryP13@...>

To "main@sec-emcomm.groups.io" <main@sec-emcomm.groups.io>

Date 03/23/2023 13:21:38

Subject Re: [EmComm] we were very luck this time

depending on the speed of the ejection, normally 48 hours,

with a fast CME, like this probably would be, 4 hours, not a lot of time.

Enough time to put some electronic supples in a safe place. Even hardened

stuff would be rendered unusable if something like this got us. 

The effect also would depend on timing. If we are in darkness (nighttime),

the effect would probably a lot less, and Asia/Europe would be more at risk. 

Also it wold probably render Satellites useless, although most US Satellites use

special “space rated” IC’s, and we would need to re learn how to read paper 

maps, because there would no longer be GPS. Would compasses be affected? 

Barry

On Mar 23, 2023, at 3:07 PM, Dan Sohn, WL7COO via groups.io <sohn@...> wrote:

Let the repartee begin:  

Had this coronal mass ejection been on our side of the sun, would the Amateur Radio Service be of any use at all?

My, now more humbled, opinion is:

We are collectively but a ‘dit' in the path of such a celestial chorus.

73, wl7coo

On Mar 23, 2023, at 11:44 AM, Barry Porter KB1PA via groups.io <kb1pa@...> wrote:

<244904.jpg>

Dodging the Apocalypse americanthinker.com